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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 13.1x - 15.1x | 14.1x |
Fair Value | A$0.29 - A$0.33 | A$0.31 |
Upside | 31.9% - 49.1% | 40.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(AUD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Jun-24 | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 |
Revenue | 117 | 118 | 119 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 |
% Growth | -4.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 9 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
% of Revenue | 8.0% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(AUD in millions) | Jun-25 | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | |
EBITDA | 17 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (16) | (15) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |
EBIT | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
NOPAT | (7) | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Capital Expenditures | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
NWC Investment | (2) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 18 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
Free Cash Flow | 9 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
% Growth | 87% | 2% | 10% | -2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |