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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.3% - 8.3% | 8.8% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 2.8% - 3.8% | 3.3% |
Fair Value | €14.81 - €20.27 | €17.05 |
Upside | -2.4% - 33.5% | 12.3% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
Revenue | 5,800 | 5,178 | 5,010 | 5,040 | 5,124 | 5,123 | |
% Growth | -13.6% | -10.7% | -3.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.0% | |
EBITDA | 1,499 | 1,406 | 1,339 | 1,341 | 1,380 | 1,380 | |
% of Revenue | 25.8% | 27.2% | 26.7% | 26.6% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 1,406 | 1,339 | 1,341 | 1,380 | 1,380 | 1,380 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (336) | (331) | (349) | (334) | (353) | (343) | |
EBIT | 1,071 | 1,008 | 992 | 1,046 | 1,027 | 1,037 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (118) | (111) | (109) | (115) | (113) | (114) | |
NOPAT | 997 | 953 | 897 | 883 | 931 | 914 | 923 |
Capital Expenditures | (472) | (500) | (495) | (403) | (459) | (361) | (361) |
NWC Investment | 91 | 62 | 17 | (3) | (8) | 0 | (17) |
(+) D&A | 379 | 336 | 331 | 349 | 334 | 353 | 343 |
Free Cash Flow | 995 | 850 | 750 | 826 | 797 | 906 | 888 |
% Growth | -15% | -12% | 10% | -3% | 14% | -2% |