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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12.4x - 13.7x | 13.0x |
Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 8.8x - 9.7x | 9.2x |
Fair Value | $8.03 - $9.13 | $8.58 |
Upside | 1.0% - 14.9% | 7.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
The Shyft Group, Inc. | SHYF | NasdaqGS:SHYF |
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | ALSN | NYSE:ALSN |
Caterpillar Inc. | CAT | NYSE:CAT |
Federal Signal Corporation | FSS | NYSE:FSS |
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. | CVGI | NasdaqGS:CVGI |
Twin Disc, Incorporated | TWIN | NasdaqGS:TWIN |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
SHYF | ALSN | CAT | FSS | CVGI | TWIN | ||
NasdaqGS:SHYF | NYSE:ALSN | NYSE:CAT | NYSE:FSS | NasdaqGS:CVGI | NasdaqGS:TWIN | ||
Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | -38.7% | 2.3% | 10.8% | 13.7% | -25.1% | -0.8% | |
3Y CAGR | -63.4% | 14.4% | 17.9% | 29.7% | -43.5% | NM- | |
Latest Twelve Months | -39.2% | 9.5% | -0.8% | 26.1% | -77.8% | -39.9% | |
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 5.0% | 29.2% | 16.7% | 12.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 0.8% | 30.5% | 20.4% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 0.5% | 31.5% | 20.9% | 15.2% | 1.2% | 5.4% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 0.5% | 31.5% | 20.9% | 15.2% | 1.2% | 4.0% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.57x | 3.05x | 2.94x | 2.55x | 0.25x | 0.46x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.5x | 8.7x | 12.2x | 13.6x | 6.8x | 6.1x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 109.9x | 9.7x | 14.0x | 16.8x | 20.0x | 11.5x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.7x | 16.8x | 109.9x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -46.5x | 8.5x | 23.1x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.4x | 13.0x | 13.7x | ||||
(x) LTM EBIT | 13 | 13 | 13 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 158 | 166 | 174 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (35) | (35) | (35) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 123 | 132 | 140 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 14.1 | 14.1 | 14.1 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 8.71 | 9.30 | 9.89 | ||||
FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.71 | 9.30 | 9.89 | 7.95 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | 9.6% | 17.0% | 24.4% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | SHYF | ALSN | CAT | FSS | CVGI | TWIN | |
Enterprise Value | 451 | 9,831 | 190,418 | 4,755 | 179 | 147 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 16 | 786 | 6,165 | 91 | 27 | 16 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
(-) Debt | (175) | (2,420) | (39,011) | (253) | (166) | (50) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (3) | 0 | 0 | (1) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 292 | 8,215 | 157,569 | 4,593 | 40 | 112 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 34.9 | 85.5 | 477.9 | 61.1 | 32.4 | 14.1 | |
Implied Stock Price | 8.35 | 96.06 | 329.69 | 75.18 | 1.25 | 7.95 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.35 | 96.06 | 329.69 | 75.18 | 1.25 | 7.95 | |
Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |