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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 22.4x - 24.8x | 23.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 14.6x - 16.1x | 15.3x |
| Fair Value | $0.29 - $0.50 | $0.39 |
| Upside | -32.3% - 17.5% | -7.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited | 1812 | SEHK:1812 |
| Clearwater Paper Corporation | CLW | NYSE:CLW |
| Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited | 2314 | SEHK:2314 |
| Yibin Paper Industry Co., Ltd. | 600793 | SHSE:600793 |
| China Health Technology Group Holding Company Limited | 1069 | SEHK:1069 |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited | NDGP.F | OTCPK:NDGP.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 1812 | CLW | 2314 | 600793 | 1069 | NDGP.F | ||
| SEHK:1812 | NYSE:CLW | SEHK:2314 | SHSE:600793 | SEHK:1069 | OTCPK:NDGP.F | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -18.6% | NM- | NM- | -14.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | -28.0% | NM- | NM- | -31.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 91.1% | -148.9% | 51.3% | -3054.0% | -75.3% | 749.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.4% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 0.5% | -98.7% | 6.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 7.2% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | -14.3% | -3.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -0.3% | -2.8% | 4.5% | -2.7% | -44.1% | 4.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.0% | -2.8% | 4.5% | -6.9% | -37.7% | 5.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.21x | 0.47x | 1.16x | 2.82x | 2.67x | 1.17x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.5x | 10.8x | 23.3x | 78.1x | -7.2x | 11.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 118.3x | -16.6x | 25.9x | -41.1x | -7.1x | 23.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -41.1x | -7.1x | 118.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -74.0x | 8.4x | 45.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 22.4x | 23.6x | 24.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 3,109 | 3,109 | 3,109 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 69,769 | 73,442 | 77,114 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (58,584) | (58,584) | (58,584) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 11,186 | 14,858 | 18,530 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,692.2 | 4,692.2 | 4,692.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.38 | 3.17 | 3.95 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.33 | 0.44 | 0.54 | 0.42 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -22.6% | 2.8% | 28.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1812 | CLW | 2314 | 600793 | 1069 | NDGP.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,317 | 652 | 29,915 | 4,188 | 160 | 73,034 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 10,096 | 80 | 1,521 | 93 | 3 | 11,861 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 5,444 | 0 | 201 | 40 | 0 | 183 | |
| (-) Debt | (40,239) | (322) | (22,050) | (1,464) | (115) | (70,135) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (3,965) | 0 | (9) | 0 | 0 | (492) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 2,653 | 410 | 9,578 | 2,857 | 47 | 14,450 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,657.5 | 16.2 | 4,295.0 | 176.9 | 859.2 | 4,692.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 0.57 | 25.33 | 2.23 | 16.15 | 0.06 | 3.08 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 7.26 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 0.61 | 25.33 | 2.23 | 16.15 | 0.06 | 0.42 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | USD | HKD | CNY | HKD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 7.26 | |