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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.0% - 10.0% | 10.5% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 3.2x - 3.5x | 3.3x |
| Fair Value | HK$ 13.20 - HK$ 17.11 | HK$ 15.09 |
| Upside | -59.4% - -47.4% | -53.6% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
| Revenue | 2,004 | 2,339 | 2,838 | 3,191 | 3,468 | 3,741 | 3,871 | 3,949 | 4,028 | 4,108 | 4,191 |
| % Growth | -12.3% | 16.7% | 21.3% | 12.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 385 | 751 | 1,142 | 1,259 | 1,499 | 1,766 | 1,828 | 1,864 | 1,902 | 1,940 | 1,978 |
| % of Revenue | 19.2% | 32.1% | 40.2% | 39.5% | 43.2% | 47.2% | 47.2% | 47.2% | 47.2% | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
| EBITDA | 751 | 1,142 | 1,259 | 1,499 | 1,766 | 1,828 | 1,864 | 1,902 | 1,940 | 1,978 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (715) | (952) | (918) | (1,137) | (1,142) | (1,181) | (1,205) | (1,229) | (1,254) | (1,279) | |
| EBIT | 36 | 190 | 341 | 362 | 625 | 646 | 659 | 672 | 686 | 700 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (9) | (46) | (82) | (87) | (150) | (155) | (158) | (161) | (165) | (168) | |
| NOPAT | (118) | 27 | 144 | 259 | 275 | 475 | 491 | 501 | 511 | 521 | 532 |
| Capital Expenditures | (2,780) | (2,500) | (1,680) | (1,800) | (1,300) | (1,230) | (1,181) | (1,205) | (1,206) | (1,197) | (1,203) |
| NWC Investment | 12 | (15) | (22) | (16) | (12) | (12) | (6) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) |
| (+) D&A | 541 | 715 | 952 | 918 | 1,137 | 1,142 | 1,181 | 1,205 | 1,229 | 1,254 | 1,279 |
| Free Cash Flow | (2,345) | (1,772) | (606) | (638) | 99 | 374 | 485 | 498 | 531 | 574 | 604 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | 276% | 30% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 5% | ||