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Jilin Expressway Co Ltd

SHSE:601518

China / Industrials / Transportation Infrastructure

10Y DCF EBITDA Exit

Stock Price

2.83 CNY

Fair Value

5.34 CNY

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	9.3% - 8.3%	8.8%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	7.8x - 9.8x	8.8x
Fair Value	¥4.97 - ¥5.73	¥5.34
Upside	75.8% - 102.6%	88.7%

0.0%

Revenue 10y CAGR

67.2%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

-0.9%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

Stock Price

2.83 CNY

Fair Value

5.34 CNY

Upside

88.7%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(CNY in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-23	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33

Revenue	1,447	1,447	1,447	1,447	1,447	1,447	1,447	1,447	1,447	1,447	1,447
% Growth	-0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

EBITDA	1,054	972	972	972	972	972	972	972	972	972	972
% of Revenue	72.8%	67.2%	67.2%	67.2%	67.2%	67.2%	67.2%	67.2%	67.2%	67.2%	67.2%

Supporting Calculations

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(CNY in millions)		Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33

EBITDA		972	972	972	972	972	972	972	972	972	972
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(318)	(318)	(318)	(318)	(318)	(318)	(318)	(318)	(318)	(318)

EBIT		655	655	655	655	655	655	655	655	655	655
Pro forma Taxes		(183)	(183)	(183)	(183)	(183)	(183)	(183)	(183)	(183)	(183)
NOPAT	533	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471	471

Capital Expenditures	(15)	(30)	(30)	(30)	(30)	(30)	(30)	(30)	(30)	(30)	(30)
NWC Investment	(1)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	313	318	318	318	318	318	318	318	318	318	318

Free Cash Flow	830	759	759	759	759	759	759	759	759	759	759
% Growth		-9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

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