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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.8% - 7.8% | 8.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.8% - 4.8% | 4.3% |
| Fair Value | ¥31.09 - ¥59.06 | ¥41.58 |
| Upside | -27.8% - 37.2% | -3.4% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| Revenue | 119,624 | 127,938 | 136,667 | 144,614 | 149,675 | 152,669 | |
| % Growth | 3.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 2,111 | 2,603 | 2,955 | 3,433 | 3,553 | 3,624 | |
| % of Revenue | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 2,603 | 2,955 | 3,433 | 3,553 | 3,624 | 3,624 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (794) | (763) | (849) | (879) | (897) | (355) | |
| EBIT | 1,809 | 2,192 | 2,583 | 2,674 | 2,727 | 3,268 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (506) | (614) | (723) | (749) | (764) | (915) | |
| NOPAT | 1,482 | 1,302 | 1,578 | 1,860 | 1,925 | 1,963 | 2,353 |
| Capital Expenditures | (408) | (450) | (350) | (300) | (367) | (374) | (374) |
| NWC Investment | (383) | (850) | (893) | (813) | (518) | (306) | (663) |
| (+) D&A | 52 | 794 | 763 | 849 | 879 | 897 | 355 |
| Free Cash Flow | 744 | 796 | 1,099 | 1,597 | 1,920 | 2,180 | 1,671 |
| % Growth | 7% | 38% | 45% | 20% | 14% | -23% | |