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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 11.8% - 10.8% | 11.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 4.5% - 5.5% | 5.0% |
| Fair Value | ¥17.54 - ¥22.06 | ¥19.44 |
| Upside | 47.2% - 85.0% | 63.1% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
| Revenue | 17,172 | 18,906 | 20,589 | 22,132 | 22,907 | 23,365 | |
| % Growth | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 1,174 | 1,335 | 1,484 | 1,637 | 1,694 | 1,728 | |
| % of Revenue | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 1,335 | 1,484 | 1,637 | 1,694 | 1,728 | 1,728 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (74) | (71) | (97) | (100) | (102) | (24) | |
| EBIT | 1,261 | 1,412 | 1,540 | 1,594 | 1,626 | 1,704 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (378) | (424) | (462) | (478) | (488) | (511) | |
| NOPAT | 792 | 883 | 988 | 1,078 | 1,116 | 1,138 | 1,193 |
| Capital Expenditures | (24) | (21) | (22) | (24) | (25) | (25) | (25) |
| NWC Investment | 29 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 8 | 22 |
| (+) D&A | 43 | 74 | 71 | 97 | 100 | 102 | 24 |
| Free Cash Flow | 840 | 967 | 1,069 | 1,180 | 1,206 | 1,224 | 1,213 |
| % Growth | 15% | 11% | 10% | 2% | 1% | -1% | |