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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 2.1x - 2.3x | 2.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥4.38 - ¥5.77 | ¥5.05 |
| Upside | -55.3% - -41.1% | -48.5% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 | 1,417 |
| % Growth | -2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| EBITDA | 107 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 |
| % of Revenue | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | ||
| EBITDA | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | (47) | |
| EBIT | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| NOPAT | 53 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Capital Expenditures | (54) | (132) | (132) | (132) | (132) | (132) | (132) | (132) | (132) | (132) | (132) |
| NWC Investment | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 48 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 47 |
| Free Cash Flow | 56 | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) | (59) |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | NM | ||