Looks like there`s been an error while trying to load this page.
Our team has been notified but please contact us using the email support widget if the problem persists.
| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
| Terminal Revenue Multiple | 7.1x - 7.9x | 7.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥41.43 - ¥48.70 | ¥44.95 |
| Upside | -0.2% - 17.3% | 8.3% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 |
| Revenue | 1,775 | 3,285 | 4,103 | 5,099 | 5,737 | 6,167 | 6,383 | 6,510 | 6,640 | 6,773 | 6,909 |
| % Growth | -31.1% | 85.1% | 24.9% | 24.3% | 12.5% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | -13 | 677 | 940 | 1,247 | 1,547 | 1,724 | 1,785 | 1,820 | 1,857 | 1,894 | 1,932 |
| % of Revenue | -0.7% | 20.6% | 22.9% | 24.5% | 27.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% | 28.0% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
| Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | ||
| EBITDA | 677 | 940 | 1,247 | 1,547 | 1,724 | 1,785 | 1,820 | 1,857 | 1,894 | 1,932 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (117) | (204) | (218) | (246) | (264) | (273) | (279) | (284) | (290) | (296) | |
| EBIT | 560 | 736 | 1,029 | 1,301 | 1,460 | 1,511 | 1,542 | 1,572 | 1,604 | 1,636 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (78) | (103) | (144) | (182) | (204) | (212) | (216) | (220) | (225) | (229) | |
| NOPAT | (50) | 482 | 633 | 885 | 1,119 | 1,256 | 1,300 | 1,326 | 1,352 | 1,379 | 1,407 |
| Capital Expenditures | (332) | (104) | (160) | (160) | (180) | (194) | (178) | (181) | (184) | (181) | (182) |
| NWC Investment | 809 | (1,523) | (826) | (1,005) | (643) | (434) | (218) | (129) | (131) | (134) | (137) |
| (+) D&A | 45 | 117 | 204 | 218 | 246 | 264 | 273 | 279 | 284 | 290 | 296 |
| Free Cash Flow | 472 | (1,028) | (149) | (61) | 541 | 892 | 1,178 | 1,294 | 1,321 | 1,354 | 1,384 |
| % Growth | NM | NM | NM | 65% | 32% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 2% | ||