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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 68.5x - 70.5x | 69.5x |
| Fair Value | ¥19.62 - ¥20.86 | ¥20.23 |
| Upside | -26.1% - -21.4% | -23.8% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-23 | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 |
| Revenue | 1,359 | 1,460 | 1,512 | 1,542 | 1,573 | 1,604 |
| % Growth | 14.8% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| EBITDA | 101 | 136 | 141 | 144 | 147 | 149 |
| % of Revenue | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
| (CNY in millions) | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | |
| EBITDA | 136 | 141 | 144 | 147 | 149 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (25) | (26) | (26) | (27) | (27) | |
| EBIT | 111 | 115 | 117 | 120 | 122 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (16) | (16) | (16) | (17) | (17) | |
| NOPAT | 68 | 96 | 99 | 101 | 103 | 105 |
| Capital Expenditures | (78) | (50) | (52) | (60) | (62) | (63) |
| NWC Investment | (53) | (31) | (16) | (9) | (9) | (10) |
| (+) D&A | 21 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 |
| Free Cash Flow | (42) | 39 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 |
| % Growth | NM | 46% | 1% | 2% | 2% | |